Yield Curve

The most commonly referenced yield curve plots the yields on U.S. Treasury securities — described in more detail in our Treasury securities overview — from very short maturities out to thirty years or longer. Under normal conditions, longer maturities offer higher yields because investors demand extra compensation for committing their money for more time. This produces an upward-sloping, or "normal," curve.

The curve's shape carries meaningful information. When long-term yields are only slightly above or even below short-term yields, the curve is described as "flat" or "inverted." An inverted yield curve — where short-term rates exceed long-term rates — has historically preceded economic slowdowns, though it is not a precise or reliable predictor. Families and their advisors sometimes use the curve's shape as one input when thinking about duration positioning within a fixed-income portfolio.

A common confusion is treating the yield curve as a single static fact. It shifts constantly as market expectations about growth, inflation, and central-bank policy evolve. The spread between any two points on the curve — say, two-year and ten-year yields — is itself a closely watched signal. Understanding the curve's shape helps families interpret why a bond's yield to maturity is what it is relative to other maturities.